Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 4.325859 5.159722 6.085749 7.186753 8.456287 9.870282 11.560281
2025-04-06 2.988599 4.071540 5.412619 7.178335 9.422726 12.159524 15.725751
2025-04-13 2.167053 3.320752 4.891257 7.144860 10.247657 14.314965 19.984372
2025-04-20 1.798004 3.042819 4.875908 7.696318 11.833122 17.568631 25.984129
2025-04-27 1.458343 2.707562 4.684977 7.924642 12.949381 20.263366 31.476050
2025-05-04 1.222563 2.470199 4.577900 8.228107 14.171135 23.189641 37.537460
2025-05-11 0.991311 2.178582 4.316418 8.222186 14.880814 25.386727 42.683979
2025-05-18 0.775074 1.856507 3.933402 7.934804 15.070609 26.761135 46.649879
2025-05-25 0.596712 1.560065 3.533683 7.540483 15.005270 27.684221 49.936185
2025-06-01 0.487862 1.382000 3.323934 7.454264 15.449946 29.462287 54.720497
2025-06-08 0.400100 1.227204 3.129127 7.359999 15.854720 31.186975 59.523228
2025-06-15 0.364190 1.191070 3.181012 7.766720 17.239029 34.728815 67.676494
2025-06-22 0.310871 1.096445 3.089769 7.873387 18.078727 37.411303 74.619186
2025-06-29 0.261052 0.996314 2.966626 7.894149 18.753538 39.857818 81.346710
2025-07-06 0.217580 0.900163 2.832794 7.868586 19.327014 42.157847 87.973502
2025-07-13 0.206336 0.904515 2.959949 8.472025 21.295644 47.289722 100.193789
2025-07-20 0.182759 0.858614 2.942317 8.721656 22.518142 51.044760 110.050847
2025-07-27 0.164768 0.826511 2.956677 9.051896 23.950561 55.318221 121.160451
2025-08-03 0.139624 0.756885 2.846660 9.045673 24.614219 58.073999 129.485406
2025-08-10 0.111378 0.661256 2.634555 8.733532 24.526615 59.260952 134.778823
2025-08-17 0.086218 0.565364 2.395831 8.304957 24.104787 59.697024 138.575360
2025-08-24 0.071564 0.511216 2.282219 8.211219 24.490358 61.891640 146.085122
2025-08-31 0.059237 0.461811 2.172150 8.108712 24.839681 64.026020 153.589193